President Trump,

As the United States economy continues to recover from the 2020 pandemic, many are beginning to wonder when the next economic downturn will occur. Historical patterns suggest the United States business cycle spans approximately 18 years, and that the next major recession could occur between 2026 to 2028.

The next economic depression is expected to stem from the same causes that have triggered economic downturns since the early 1800s. Despite warnings from those familiar with this, such as the late Dr. Fred Foldvary, the late Dr. Mason Gaffney, and Fred Harrison who collectively predicted the 2008 Depression as far back as 1997, many economists and financial analysts dismiss accurately forecasting such events. However, the cycle persists precisely because of such disbelief.

The root cause of boom-and-bust cycles is massive land value subsidies brought on by government intervention. The Federal Reserve manipulating interest rates creates cheap credit that fuels real estate bubbles and market speculation. This artificial money expansion and credit leads to uneven price inflation with real estate prices rising disproportionately over time.

Additionally, government subsidies, such as property tax breaks for landowners and public goods financed by labor and capital taxes, further distort the market. Though the land portion of property tax does partially deflate conditions, the building part far outweighs this by catering to high-income landowners willing and able to depreciate their buildings for tax purposes. Further, wealthy homeowners disproportionally appeal their property tax at far higher rates than the national average, thus increasing appraisal inequality. These subsidies inflate land values, attracting speculation and driving prices beyond what actual users can afford, eventually leading to economic recessions and, in the worst cases, depressions.

In 2014, reduced vacancies from the construction bubble and economic growth triggered the next real estate bubble, which will peak sometime after 2024. Though external shocks, like geopolitical tensions and international financial problems, could alter this prediction, the deep fiscal and monetary distortions will inevitably lead to another bust.

Worse, the next economic crash is predicted to be more severe than 2008, as the US government’s growing debt will undermine US bond safety, thus limiting the ability to borrow ourselves out of the crisis. However, there is still time to prevent this impending crisis.

I urge you to act now. Address the root causes by implementing a tax shift to a national land value tax, severance taxes on extractable resources, and a national carbon and methane tax, to avert the next crash. Reforming the banking system by implementing the late Dr. Frank Knight and the late Dr. Henry Simon’s Chicago Plan would also greatly aid this effort. Do not have your presidency marked with the worse financial crash in American history by ignoring these warnings.