Australia’s housing market is showing familiar signs of strain as residential land prices hit a record high while sales fell to their lowest level in more than two decades, according to the latest HIA-Cotality Residential Land Report.

The median price of land sold climbed 2.6 percent in the final quarter of 2024, reaching $369,530. That’s 8 percent higher than a year earlier, even as lot sales dropped to the weakest year since 2000.

HIA Senior Economist Tom Devitt said in the Elite Agent article that the surge in prices despite sluggish sales reflects severe supply shortages.

“The fact that these record low sales volumes occurred at the same time that land prices re-accelerated from record highs is indicative of shortages of shovel-ready land, driven by the rising cost of providing infrastructure and delays in the planning system.”

While the report frames the issue as a supply crunch, Georgist economists argue it points to a deeper, cyclical problem. Researchers such as Fred Harrison and Fred Foldvary have long documented the 18-year land cycle, noting that global property booms and busts recur with striking regularity.

Foldvary famously predicted the 2008 crash in the late 1990s by tracking this cycle, which is supported by more than two centuries of land value data.

By that measure, analysts warn that the current global real estate bubble (larger than the one that burst in 2007) is on track to peak in 2026. A deep recession could follow in 2027 as land values correct. Australia’s soaring lot prices mirror similar pressures in the United States and other markets, reinforcing concerns that the world economy is once again approaching the end of the cycle.

The Albanese government has pledged investment in “enabling infrastructure” to expand land supply. Devitt welcomed the move but cautioned against narrowly targeted funding.

“Fast-tracking this infrastructure is fantastic value-for-money for the government but care must be taken not to limit the funding … to only specific buyer groups or housing types,” he said.

Cotality economist Kaytlin Ezzy added in the Elite Agent article that the shortage of affordable land is steering demand away from new builds.

“The lack of affordable shovel-ready land continues to be a significant barrier… with many prospective buyers instead shifting demand to the established market,” she said.

For Georgists, however, infrastructure fixes may not be enough. They argue that without addressing land speculation and rent capture, governments will remain trapped in the same recurring cycle of booms and busts.