Monday Morning News Brief:

The U.S. housing market is experiencing its largest imbalance on record, with nearly 500,000 more home sellers than buyers, according to a recent report by Redfin. As of April 2025, there are an estimated 1.94 million active home listings compared to approximately 1.45 million buyers which makes a 33.7% gap said to be the most lopsided buyer-seller ratio since at least 2013.

Redfin projects that home prices will fall by roughly 1% nationally by the end of the year as the market adjusts to this surplus of sellers.

“The balance of power in the U.S. housing market has shifted toward buyers,” said Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan, “but a lot of sellers have yet to see or accept the writing on the wall.”

High mortgage rates and economic uncertainty have slowed down buyer activity. While rising rates tend to reduce home prices over time, they also make monthly mortgage payments more expensive (especially for first-time buyers) leading to reduced demand even as listing prices adjust. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 6.73% in April, more than double the lows seen during the pandemic, contributing to a market where many would-be buyers are still priced out despite modest declines in sale prices.

Condo markets are especially affected, with 83.5% more sellers than buyers. Single-family homes have a 27.8% surplus of sellers, while townhomes show a 33% gap.

Out of the 50 largest U.S. metro areas, 31 are now classified as “buyer’s markets”.

Miami leads with sellers outnumbering buyers by nearly 200%, followed by several other Florida cities including West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale. These Sun Belt metros saw rapid homebuilding during the pandemic and are now seeing inventory far exceed demand.

On the opposite end, seven metro areas remain seller’s markets. Newark, New Jersey, has 47.1% fewer sellers than buyers, and its median home price rose 12.2% year-over-year which is the largest increase among the top 50 metros.

In total, the data suggest a cooling housing market as elevated costs and market saturation shift negotiating power toward buyers for the first time in years.